Hanna is a moderate tropical storm, with its sights set on the Carolina Coast, followed by heavy rain up the I-95 corridor. Rain is likely in CNY Saturday, but we do feel the core of the heaviest rainfall will miss us to the south and east. There is still some uncertainty regarding Hanna and how a predecessor rain event (the rain well ahead of the storm) will unfold. So we aren't ruling out heavy rain here yet entirely. Flooding rains are possible well to our south and east.
Ike is a major category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. The forecast track of Ike is problematic, as it will likely impact some of the islands and potentially the Florida coast by midweek. There is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding Ike's track, and if history has anything to say, Ike may not threaten the US at all.
Josephine continues to meander in the Atlantic and should hold its own over the next few days.
90 degree weather is a possibility Friday across the region! Post your temps below.
]]>Questions/Comments Below!
]]>- How the month of August can be characterized by splitting it in two down the middle. The first half was abnormally wet and mild. The second half was abnormall dry and gorgeous. The main difference in the two halves temperature wise was overnight lows, significantly cooler in the 2nd half of August.
- Tropical Storm Josephine has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is one of three named storms currently churning out there. It is also the least of the threats at the moment. We discuss the forecast track for this storm.
- Tropical Storm Ike is meandering east of the Lesser Antilles. As time goes on, Ike will become a threat to the Bahamas, islands, Cuba and perhaps either the Gulf or Southeast U.S. by next week.
- Hanna is a poorly organized tropical storm near Hati, but it is trying to get itself back together. This system is going to impact someone on the Southeast Coast. Landfall could be anywhere between Daytona Beach and Myrtle Beach later this week. Hanna will then affect us with the potential for heavy rain, but much will depend on the exact track and strength of Hanna. We discuss the possibilities and how there is considerable uncertainty in the ultimate track of Hanna. A lot will be determined in the next 36 hours regarding how Hanna impacts us.
We're doing video blogs temporarily, as there is just so much to cover, I'd rather use our graphics to explain them, which is much tougher to do in text form. Once things settle a bit, I will likely revert back to the old typed out format!
]]>Incidentally, after doing this, I was looking at historical tracks of August storms within 300 miles of where both Gustav and Hanna are now. Interestingly, only one or two near Gustav did NOT make landfall in Texas, and only one (Hurricane Andrew) near Hanna did not head out to sea. Food for thought.
]]>Gustav Now
Here's a look at the satellite image of Gustav this evening. What can we take from this? Well, the big thing is how disorganized Gustav looks. You'll look at this satellite image and assume probably that the big blob of red south of Jamaica is the center of the storm redeveloping. Well, believe it or not, the center is located immediately west of the tip of Hati....near the top of the orange blob that extends out from the big red area. This storm is not healthy looking and may even be a depression at present. Still, the Hurricane Center is keeping it as a weak tropical storm for now.
Let's look at the GFS forecast of tonight's upper level maps. We have a ridge of high pressure aloft that extends from west of Cuba up through Florida and into the Atlantic. This is what will hold Gustav at bay for a bit...keeping it on a westerly or west-northwesterly course.
Gustav's Future
The first problem with Gustav is that it's so poorly organized right now that the models may have some trouble in the next 12-24 hours initializing the location properly. Poor initialization on the models leads to increased error the further out in time you go. Let's focus in on what the models are exactly doing with Gustav in the future. Then, we'll look at the upper level forecast and see what hints that may provide as to how right or wrong the models are.
Here's a look at a few of the model tracks for Gustav. Unfortunately my usual site for model tracks on Google Earth is not working at the moment. But, you get the idea. There's a consensus that the storm will pass near or north of Jamaica and clip the west coast of Cuba. If the storm track is already due west though, this could be adjusted perhaps for a potential hit right on Jamaica.
Here's a look at the GFS model's ensemble mean of 500 mb heights at 120 hours....Monday morning. Focus on the big map. Notice, the ridge of high pressure that was strung out over the Gulf and Atlantic has weakened. The strongest part of the ridge is moving our way...responsible for our fantastic weather Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. This means that Gustav will make a turn NW or NNW at some point here. The ridge then sort of aligns SW to NE....and with basically dead air over the Gulf, there's nothing to push Gustav anywhere. To me, this is suggesting that there may be both a slow down in the storm and perhaps a turn due N around Sunday or Monday.
The trend on the models the last 24 hours has been to get rid of the Yucatan track and lift it slightly further north and east with each run. Last night, they were clustered on W-C Louisiana. Tonight, there's one camp that keeps it going NW toward Texas. There's another camp though that now goes east of New Orleans....between Pensacola, FL and Gulfport, MS.
Intensity forecasts are all over the map. A couple of the traditionally beefier models are going nuts, making Gustav a Cat 3-4 and driving it right into or near New Orleans. I have to be honest...I'm not so sure I buy them right now.
Here's a map that shows the theoretical maximum a storm could develop to be, given water temperatures and conditions. Just south of Cuba is what you want to focus in on. Notice, assuming that Gustav tracks near Jamaica and south of the deeper purples near Cuba...well Gustav can only get so strong. So a Cat 3 or Cat 4 today, to me at least, is looking a little bit like a tougher sell....especially given how poorly organized this thing is tonight.
No two storms are alike, but a look at climatology can at least provide you some sort of ideas as to what could theoretically happen to a storm. Weather Underground provides maps of historical tracks of storms that passed within 400 miles of the current position of Gustav. So if history is any judge, people in Florida are the ones who should be the most concerned about Gustav!
The bottom line is that Gustav is going to be a very, very difficult storm to predict until it gets organized...assuming that even happens (which, well, stranger things have happened).
At this point, by Monday evening, I'll take a stab at this. I think Monday evening we have a Category 2, still sitting in the Central Gulf...moving slowly. But I am VERY open to other solutions. Long way to go before we can peg anyone on this. I would watch this if I lived anywhere between Tampa and Houston.
95L aka...the Future Hanna?
Here's a satellite picture of a disturbance in the Atlantic, termed 95L. This has a good shot at becoming Hanna in the next day or two.
Here's the 144 (6 days out) hour forecast from the Euro model. Notice, it has Gustav in New Orleans, with what is likely Hanna stalking Miami. Wouldn't that be a mess... Either way, I think with this pretty significant ridge building over the Eastern US, whatever becomes of "Hanna" may end up getting drawn due north...could end up being a fish storm.
Time will tell! We'll keep you posted.
]]>August 1-12
Average High Temperature: 76.7 degrees
Precipitation: 2.86"
August 13-25
Average High Temperature: 78.2 degrees
Precipitation: 0.77"
If you eliminate today (71), our average high is up to 79 degrees. So all in all, despite a couple of very cool days, we have certainly seen a change here as of late. The gorgeous weather we've had will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. So that begs the question, why has it been so nice? Our air masses have been dropping in from south-central Canada. These have come with broad areas of strong high pressure that track like this. Typically, when you think of Canadian air, it's usually cold. Well, this time of year, Canada can produce some of the finest air masses of the year. Typically, we don't see weather like this until mid to late September and October though, so (off the record), I'm wondering if this is adding some fuel to the possibility of an earlier than usual winter this year. Because, summer or not, this is true, pure CNY autumn weather.
Fay Impacts on Us?
So after Wednesday, the forecast become a little more difficult. Here's the GFS forecast for Wednesday morning. Open it up in a new window or tab and follow along.
On the top left panel, you can see the upper level energy. Notice, the bullseye over Ohio. That's the core of what once was Tropical Storm Fay. It's being picked up by another, weak upper level system dropping in from the N & W...indicated by the red over Wisconsin and Illinois. Then, notice a big red blob on the top righthand side of that map. That's another upper level storm parked to our east. Now, check out the top right panel. Notice the big "H" sitting right over us. This pattern is basically clogged. The high pressure won't budge because of the cutoff storm over the Canadian Maritimes. This will force the bulk of the moisture from Fay to lift up into Western New York, Michigan and Ontario.
As we go into Thursday, the bulk of the energy is going to lift out of our area. There will still be a bit of an upper level disturbance hanging around and trying to slide through. I felt it prudent to include a chance of showers on Thursday. This may linger into Friday morning, before fair weather returns Friday afternoon.
Looking to Labor Day Weekend
Initial prognostications would suggest that 3/4 of the weekend looks good. I think most of Saturday will be okay. But, Saturday evening and Saturday night into Sunday morning will see another cold front slide through here (similar to both Sunday/today and last Monday night/Tuesday, both with timing and intensity. It looks like a period of showers and storms is likely sometime before Noon Sunday and after Noon Saturday. Timing-wise, this isn't too bad. Then, after a so-so day Sunday (sun/clouds...some mostly cloudy periods, low to mid 70s), we should see a stellar Monday for Labor Day itself. Obviously we'll keep you posted on this forecast.
Gustav!
Gustav went from a wave to a rather potent tropical storm today. Here's a look at Gustav on satellite this evening. It doesn't look quite as good as it did earlier today, but still a healthy storm nonetheless. You can see Cuba at top left to get your bearings.
Here are the models. What to take from this? Gustav will remain on a NW track for the next 24-36 hours. After that point, the track will bend to the west. This is where the models split, with some taking it toward the Central American coast, others toward the Yucatan of Mexico, and a few others back to the NW and toward the Gulf of Mexico. Assuming this strengthens into a weak hurricane and impacts Cuba and/or Jamaica, we won't see the storm explode in the next 2-4 days. However, if this stays over the open water for a bit, there's no reason why it wouldn't strengthen further. This will be an interesting storm, especially if those Gulf tracks end up coming to pass. The next 2-3 days will be interesting to watch Gustav's development.
]]>Severe Storms First
We're watching a line of strong to severe storms to our north as I write this. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch, for the potential for severe storms, is in effect north of Route 20 until 10 PM. Our thoughts and the latest updates can be found in the comments section at the bottom of this entry.
Dry Weather... Cool Weather
The dry weather will come with a price. 850 mb temperatures...or the air temperatures approximately 5,000 feet up are going to drop +14 this evening to +5 by tomorrow evening...allowing for (theoretically) a 16 degree drop in temperatures tomorrow (We were around 84 today...so upper 60s tomorrow? I think so). More impressive than tomorrow will be tomorrow night. Overnight lows are going to push record levels. We're looking at a record tomorrow night of 40 degrees. I think we hit low 40s without much trouble...and depending on how the recent rains impact us (potentially adding more moisture to the air and keeping us a smidge warmer), we're looking at a true autumn-like night across the region. I expect upper 30s, with the potential for mid 30s in the North Country and especially the Adirondacks.
But then, we get rewarded. Wednesday looks like one of the 10 best days of the century. Highs in the low to mid 70s and oodles of sunshine, along with low humidity.
As a Bermuda high pattern sets up, with southwest winds over the bulk of the Eastern US...along with plenty of tropical moisture from Fay (more on that in a second) to our south...we will turn increasingly warmer and more humid each day from Thursday through Saturday and potentially into Sunday. So mid 80s Thursday, upper 80s Friday...and potential for 90 by Saturday. Sunday could also end up being hot depending on how Fay behaves.
Fay and Florida, Fay and Us?
Fay is a nightmare storm to forecast. This is for two reasons. First off...the track is incredibly difficult.
Check out a spaghetti plot of computer model forecasts from earlier today for Fay. We've got tracks offshore, tracks into Florida, into the Atlantic, then back into Florida, then maybe into the Gulf again. The general consensus is that Fay will move inland over SW Florida tonight and then go up the Peninsula...then potentially back out to sea before it gets caught up in the upper level pattern that will bring us our nice weather....which will force back Fay to the west. The question is whether that will be over the Gulf and up into the Deep South...or into N Florida and Georgia. I think it will go inland over Georgia.
Then, it's a nightmare forecast for rain amounts. Here is a 5 day estimate of rain totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The bullseye is just offshore and is an incredible 25"! Someone in the Southeast is going to get an awful lot of rain from this system. The question is who?
But Fay will stall out as we enjoy our nice weather. Next week though, I see some signs that a cold front is going to pass through our area, and this may tap into the remnant moisture from Fay in the Southeast, giving us some locally heavy rain by early week.
Cutting this short to watch for severe weather. I'll have more on this later this week.
]]>Thursday-Friday
Here's what the average 500 mb height map has looked like this summer across the US from May to July. Our "average" height line has been about 5,690 meters (heights of pressure levels are a good way to determine warm vs. cold). You can also see how there has been a mean trough over the Lakes and Northeast.
Here's what an average 500 mb height map looks like while factoring in the long term average for May through July. Our "average" height line in that period is about 5,720 meters. So you can see right away that we are a bit below normal. The number is more telling elsewhere, but you get the idea. When averaging the upper levels over the last 2-3 months, there's no debating that it has been troughier, cooler and stormier than it should be.
Which brings me to my next point....
Here's a look at tomorrow morning's forecasted 500 mb map off the NAM model. Here we go again. We're in a good spot for the morning, so I don't expect much shower activity, but as the brown and orange colors (what we call vorticity...or what we'll commonly refer to as "energy") approach, our chances for storms will increase. That's why I'm forecasting a generally nice morning, but with developing showers and storms in the afternoon.
Friday's problem is slightly different. Thursday's storms will be caused by in part by the approach of that system. Friday however, we'll see that system crash into our area. We call this a shortwave trough. Because the overall pattern is that of a trough...embedded within are disturbances referred to as shortwaves. Well, by Friday morning, here's the map. This shortwave is moving right over us. This will provide the kick we need to get showers and storms developing. Additionally, it will slow down considerably as it passes through (as it tried to close off as an upper level low). This will allow moisture to build up, and as it kick starts our storms Friday, we expect locally heavy rain to become an issue. I'm not expecting much in the way of severe weather Friday (though a few storms can't be ruled out due to hail). But hail and heavy rain look to be the main concerns from early to mid morning into late afternoon Friday. Not quite a washout, but...not exactly nice.
Weekend
So will we ever get a nice weekend? The series of upper storms we have had this summer have been quick to move in, but slow to move out. This one will be no exception. But, let's see what's up here.
Here's Saturday morning's upper level map, this time off the GFS model. So on Saturday morning, that upper level energy is still over us. However, by Sunday morning, here's the map. Notice, our upper level system is located in the Canadian Maritimes. What does that mean? It ejects out quickly on Saturday. So while there will likely be showers around for much of the first half of Saturday, the second half should see nicer weather. And Sunday....looks...dry!
Beyond the Weekend
Notice on that last map...there is another upper level storm...but this time it's not in Canada or over the Lakes...it's in the Plains.
What does this mean?
As it sits over the Plains, the large ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is going to slowly slide east and over top of this system. So that by Wednesday morning, what's left of that system is still over the Plains, but the ridge is spreading warmer than average conditions into western Ontario and Manitoba. At the same time, the next in our series of upper level storms is being manufactured in Quebec and Ontario. It drops toward us like the rest have this summer, but this time, there's a catch.
Notice, that ridge is overtopping the Plains storm as our next trough is diving into SE Canada. But there's the catch. Rather than (like the rest this summer) diving into the Lakes then down into NY and New England, this one is diving toward Northern New England, but at the same time, being pushed out by a developing ridge. Now, one model, the European is a little slower with this shift, and does manage to bring this trough into our area for one cool day (Wednesday) next week. That could still happen, but the players are on the field, meaning it would be a quick bout with the nasty weather.
Beyond this time, a mean ridge in the East sets up and stays up. This should mean a return to warmth and probably some humidity as well, but less in the way of constant showers.
Is this an overall shift? I'm not sold that it is, and this may only be a short term change in the pattern that lasts for a week or so, before we revert back to more typical summer 2008 weather. But, there is a chance that we are seeing changes here, as this has been modeled by the GFS ensembles for quite some time now and appears to be coming to fruition.
Where Can This Go Wrong?
Well, the models could be missing some subtle feature in the pattern that would allow for another trough to dive in over the Lakes. But, I'd lean against that right now...this has pretty solid model agreement...at least for now. One thing I am concerned with though....the Tropics. We're seeing signs that a few disturbances may get going in the Atlantic. The overall pattern does not suggest anything definite. But, if anything does end up in the Gulf...it's possible it gets picked up by a front and brought in here. I'm just saying...based on the way this summer has gone, this is something to watch.
But in the meantime, let's focus in on the fact that we may have a pair of nice days upcoming for a change!
]]>For the month of August so far...
2.86" (normal 1.10")
Average temperature: 68.2...slightly cooler than normal.
Wet and cool.
For the summer? 13.51" (already 2" above normal). For comparison...remember 2006, with the flood and all? That summer saw 18.41", so we're definitely above normal, but behind that pace.
We are dealing with Flash Flooding in Middleville (see the photo, from YouNewsTV) this evening, so I'm keeping this entry brief, and I just want to hit at a couple of quick points for the coming days.
Tuesday
The upper low, which you can thank for this lovely weather, is finally slowly pulling away. We'll still be on the periphary of the system, but it does appear that the amount of showers tomorrow should be considerably less than today. Still, like normal, I have to keep showers in basically all day. But there should be a fair amount of dry weather as well. The best chance for showers is north and east of Utica.
Wednesday into Thursday
Well, let's recap. So far this summer we've had some cool nights. Lots of hail. Lake effect rain. A pattern normal for November. Why not add a nor'easter to the mix. A bonafide nor'easter may try to form on Wednesday. The good news is that at this juncture, it will pass far enough east, that we'd be spared of any significant rain. However, like a wintertime nor'easter when some sort of back edge deformation zone sets up with the upper low, we will be near that. So I have gone with a chance of storms both days....mostly Thursday. I'll post some updates after the new runs come in this evening in the comments.
Weekend
So then we deal with another pesky upper level system into the weekend. That lifts out Saturday, and now I see signs that as warmer air tries to build in, a cold front may try and plow through. That would mean a period of storms at some point.
Beyond the Weekend
I have to be honest. We're in such a weather funk right now, that I'm literally looking at maps and asking myself...where can this go wrong, if there's potential for nice weather. I see two possibilities right now in the longer range.
There are two players in this. The first would be if a Bermuda High can develop, where high pressure anchors itself in the Atlantic, our winds shift into the southwest and we turn warm and humid. Should this occur, first of all, I'd be curious to see if the cold front progged for this weekend stalls near us next week, giving us daily showers and storms. Unlikely, but possible.
Also unlikely but possible would be what's brewing in the tropics. It would only make sense for a nice weather pattern for us to set up, but it be ruined by a decaying hurricane. There are at least two systems that could develop right now in the Tropics. System one would end up just north of the Dominican Republic in five days or so. System two should stay further north and east in the Atlantic. The question we'd have is if that first system ends up tracking toward Florida and into the Gulf. Or if it were to track up the East Coast. A LOT of questions this far out. And frankly, a lot of uncertainty beyond the weekend at this point. It could be warm and humid, but pleasant, warm and humid, but stormy...or somehow..the persistent trough rears its ugly head again. We'll see.
]]>
